Velocity
Definition
Velocity is an agile planning metric that tracks the average number of story points a team completes per sprint, used to forecast capacity and set realistic expectations for how much work can be committed to in upcoming sprints.
Velocity is a team-level measurement, not an individual one, and it's meaningful only within a single team. A team averaging 40 points per sprint and another team averaging 40 points per sprint tells you nothing about which team ships more value — because story points are relative to each team's own calibration.
How velocity is calculated: At the end of each sprint, count the story points of all backlog items the team completed (fully done per the definition of done). Average this across the last three to five sprints to get a stable velocity number.
How teams use velocity:
- Sprint planning: "We average 42 points. Let's pull stories until we reach about 42 points."
- Release forecasting: "We have 200 points of work left and average 40 per sprint. Roughly five sprints to complete."
- Detecting problems: a velocity that drops sharply signals something is wrong — scope creep, technical debt, team disruption.
What velocity is not:
- A measure of team speed or individual productivity
- Something to be compared across teams
- A target to maximize (gaming velocity by inflating estimates is a known antipattern)
- A commitment (it's a forecast, not a contract)
Velocity tends to stabilize over time as a team's estimation calibration matures. New teams have highly variable velocity for the first three to five sprints while they learn to size work consistently.
Velocity is most useful as a planning input, not a performance metric. Managers who pressure teams to increase velocity typically get inflated estimates — not faster delivery.
Examples
- Team averages 38 points over the last four sprints; they pull 40 points into the next sprint plan
- Velocity drops from 42 to 22 in one sprint after two engineers are pulled onto an incident — team adjusts next sprint's capacity accordingly
- Release forecast: 160 story points remaining, velocity of 32 points/sprint = five sprints to release
- New team's velocity chart shows high variance for first six sprints, then stabilizes around 35
- Team discovers their velocity is being inflated by engineers estimating high to look safe — addressed in retro
Snap a velocity. Ship its actions.
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